effects of population growth in africa

Overcrowded countries such as the Philippines, India, … These are the only large regions of the world where, even after decades of falling mortality, fertility remains at or above five children per woman.4. to approximately 1750, at which time global population was an estimated 800 million. For Africa to achieve similar fertility reductions in the next 30 years will be difficult. The population of Africa is expected to roughly double by 2050. The UN report also states that nine countries, India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia, will house half the world’s population between 2017 and 2050. If in fact fertility remains as high as 3.5 children per woman in 2050 and 2.65 in 2100, which is the UN “high variant” scenario, then Africa’s total population would soar to 2.8 billion by 2050 and 6.2 billion by 2100. As the slow fertility decline in Africa continues to confound expectations, the adjustments to population projections can be dramatic. UN population projections for Africa’s largest and fastest growing countries in millions, FASTEST GROWING COUNTRIES (Not Already Shown Above), To be sure, vigorous programs of state-led family planning, coupled with increased education, could bend these curves. The UN report predicts that the number of people aged 60 and over will more than triple by … This will have two components: labor migration and refugee movements. However, they are not considered overpopulated since their density is less than 100 per square kilometer as compared to India’s 324. A report from Cornell University suggests that malnutrition makes people more susceptible to life-threatening diseases like malaria and respiratory infections. The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, after rapid population growth and then progress in their demographic transition, enjoyed decades of economic growth and rapid educational expansion prior to the outburst of revolutions in 2010–2011. In Niger in 1998, for example, women who completed secondary education had 31% fewer children (on average, 4.6 per lifetime) than those who completed only primary education (6.7). In fact, we do observe a gradient in fertility within sub-Saharan Africa linked to modernization indices. As can be seen, there is wide variation. In the United States, which took more students and skilled workers, the increase was 325,000 in the same period. Nigeria, by these projections, will be more populous than the United States by 2050 and by 2100 have more people than all of Europe. North Africa has had a much higher rate of migration outside of Africa, with many north Africans working in the Gulf oil countries and, more recently, refugees from the Libyan civil war seeking asylum in Europe. In the model, the intermediate determinants are income (real GDP/capita), urbanization (percent urban), infant mortality, women’s employment (both for young women age 15–24 and all women), and women’s education. In the following sections, we shall use the UN medium variant projections for future growth, but recall that this is a conservative, rather than “worse case,” scenario. With the exception of a few regions, notably sub-Saharan Africa, fertility levels have been falling worldwide in the past two decades, resulting in slowing population growth. Almost all tropical African countries, including “good” performers like Kenya and Rwanda, are at 40 to 50% of their population aged 0–14. A sorghum and cassava “revolution,” along the lines of the “green revolution” that transformed Asia, is potentially within reach. Only a few countries suffering from high infant mortality had smaller declines: Burundi, Somalia, Central African Republic, Chad, Benin, and Mauritania. From the 1950s, fertility in Africa actually rose slightly, reaching nearly seven children per woman by the early 1970s. The costs are divided By 2030 this number is expected to increase to 8.6 billion and eventually 11.2 billion by 2100. Yet in other nations, educational progress is far less important for fertility decline than in sub-Saharan Africa. Adepoju also states that remittances received by the migrated worker have been increasing notably and are a lifeline for poor relations left behind as they are able to pay for basic services such as healthcare, education and to enhance agricultural production. Africa’s Secondary Education Gap, Growth Projections for Africa: 2050 and Beyond30. Almost all population growth in the coming decades is thus expected to end up in cities. Given the rapid decline in mortality that Africa has enjoyed, and the still high fertility that it maintains, the future will be one of extremely rapid population growth. During the 30 years from 1975 to 2005 when its population doubled, Bangladesh had only modest growth in per capita income and struggled with coups and unstable government. well-being of the entire population and of all indi- ... identified as having an important effect on eco-nomic growth. Unlike many global publications, for nearly a decade we have been committed to showing a complete picture of Africa – not just a single story. As we will discuss further below, Africa could also export workers to rich but aging countries who will need younger workers for landscaping, construction, and health and elderly care. UN Population Projections For 2050 (Millions), 2010 vs. 2018, Because of the failure of Africa’s fertility to track the pattern of other regions, an alternative hypothesis has been advanced, arguing that Africa has an exceptionally pro-natalist culture that maintains high fertility even in the face of economic modernization. Indeed, among the literally billions of Africans who will be born in the 21st century, there are no doubt future Mozarts, Einsteins, Salks, and Picassos, as well as brilliant performers, writers, and thinkers of all kinds. Africa’s population today is thus far healthier and longer-lived than it was in the preceding century. From 1950 to 2007 malnutrition increased by 37% and is linked to six million child deaths a year. But given the wide variation among African countries, it is not clear why they should converge to a median rate of fertility decline. To date, sub-Saharan Africa has been a modest contributor to global labor migration. The decline in fertility rates combined with increased life expectancy in most parts of the world means not only a slowing of population growth but also an older population. Oil rose from less than $20 a barrel in 1999 to more than $145 in 2008. Fortunately, Africa has plentiful wind, hydro, uranium, and solar resources. Thus, this variant assumes that Nigeria, whose fertility declined by 3% in the five years 2005–10 to 2010–15, will in the future experience a fertility decline of 6.6% every five years to 2050. Thus, for Africa as a whole, fertility decline in the last five years was just 3.6%. 80% of that comes from just six fossil fuel dependent industrializing countries: South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Libya, Egypt and Morocco. Kenya and Rwanda both have similar levels of fertility, 4.1 and 4.2 respectively, even though Kenya has almost twice the level of female secondary attendance. To be sure, Africa has benefited from the surge in commodity prices over the past decade. By contrast, women’s employment has no significant effect at all on fertility, not through family size nor through birth intervals. But many of these claims were rejected; the net increase in sub-Saharan Africans living in Europe in these years was only 420,000. That age structure still characterizes almost all of sub-Saharan Africa today. But the large number of children is not a blessing for families. Of course, inequality means there will still be a substantial middle class. These gains in life expectancy are mainly due to dramatic declines in infant mortality. Population growth rates continue to pose lingering challenges to development efforts on the continent. Higher urbanization is associated with higher women’s education and employment, in much the same magnitude of effect in Africa as in other developing regions. Ideally, Africa’s population growth, and the entry of African populations into the global economy as workers and consumers, would recapitulate the success stories of Eastern Asia. The high school completion rate among the male population up to age 21 is under 15% in Burundi, Niger, Madagascar, Burkino Faso, Mozambique, the Central African Republic, Gabon, Zimbabwe, Mali, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Senegal. While this explanation would account for the low rate of fertility decline observed in Africa, and even the rise in fertility observed from the 1950s to the 1970s, it too has difficulties. As Bongaarts notes, real income per capita in sub-Saharan Africa grew hardly at all from the 1970s to the 2010s, while real income in other developing regions rose sharply in these decades.8 Goujon, Lutz, and Samir have pointed out that many sub-Saharan countries had a “stall” in their progress in education that may have produced a “stall” in progress in reducing fertility.9 Thus it could be posited that Africa is simply behind in certain attainments and will eventually catch up to other regions. Unfortunately, all these tragic trends could be forecast from the state of African demography. to lower the rate of population growth has increased steadily in Africa since the mid-1970s, from 25 per cent in 1976 to 60 per cent in 1996 and 72 per cent in 2013 (table II.1). (2) Investments were made to increase enrollments in secondary/vocational and tertiary education, reaching 100% for secondary/vocational enrollments. Could Niger go from 20 million to nearly 70 million by mid-century, or Angola to 76 million? But all regions enjoyed declines of about 26–28%. Second, even for the latter regions, the rate and amount of their fertility decline is not comparable to what happened in other developing regions at similar levels of income and development. Only very few countries have fertility declining at double-digit rates over this period. As of 2018, according to the IMF, the total gross domestic product of all of Africa in current U.S. dollars is $2.3 trillion—just 50% more than the GDP of Australia and New Zealand. Population growth Global population has increased by 2.9 billion over the past 35 years, from 4.4 billion in 1980 to 7.3 billion in 2015. Nonetheless, Iran’s population increased from 38.7 million in 1980, when its rapid demographic transition began, to 80 million in 2010, when the transition was completed; such is the power of demographic momentum to keep population growing even when fertility is declining. Yet that would be a tragic mistake. By 2070, after thirty years in which all growth in the labor force in the world will be in sub-Saharan Africa, that region will have a working-age population of 1.8 billion, more than the United States, India, and China combined. In the United States, for example, the recent fall in fertility to record low levels has resulted in the U.S. Census reducing its population forecast for 2050 from 439 million (forecast in 2008) to 390 million (latest forecast in 2017).57 That means in 2050, the United States will have almost 50 million fewer people—most of them prime working age—than was expected just ten years ago to pay into social security and Medicare to support seniors; and that is with recent immigration rates of one million per year being sustained to 2050. Europe still had almost twice the population of sub-Saharan Africa. That was only twice the population of Japan, and only about one-third the population of Europe. In Asia and Latin America, fertility was similar to that in Africa in the 1950s, with about six children born per woman during her lifetime. Table 2. Europe and America are already facing severe shortages of low-wage labor for service, construction, and eldercare jobs—work that is not easily or cheaply done by robots. Moreover, such secondary education as is provided goes mainly to boys, with girls having a significant gap. The population growth rate has been slowing, however, from peak annual rates in excess of 2 percent in the late 1960s, to about 1 percent currently, to half that by 2050. This suggests that the vulnerability of countries with a very young population was not merely a result of the large numbers of institutionally weak states in the early stages of industrialization. When women shift to paid work outside the home this pattern simply continues and allows women to enter paid labor without worrying about child care.22 These cultural patterns buffer the effect of women’s employment on childbearing. Generally, population patterns are diverse. Africa today includes giant countries with populations near or exceeding 100 million (Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria) and tiny countries with populations under 1 million (Comoros, Djibouti, Cabo Verde, Reunion, Mayotte, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles). Demographics can have a profound effect on the economy. If by 2050 Africa can turn the corner on fertility and reduce its population growth, and make the investments in its human capital and infrastructure needed to lay the foundation for future growth, then in the second half of this century Africa could be the main motor of global economic growth, much as China has been for the last thirty years and India could be for the next thirty. To understand future fertility in Africa, we thus need to take a closer look at its progress in education. Although the numbers in Table 2 are for female enrollments, those for men are not much better. 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